USDA reports show support for soybean futures

KANSAS CITY, MO. – A slew of US Department of Agriculture reports on Jan. 12 were seen as mostly bearish on corn futures, but supportive on soybeans, relative to trade expectations.

Chicago Board of Trade wheat futures closed lower after the reports, corn futures were narrowly mixed and soybean futures ended higher, helped by the decline by the USDA forecast for global closing stocks amid persistent reports of dry weather affecting crops in South America.

Estimates of world agricultural supply and demand

Corn carryover to September 1, 2022 was forecast at 1,540 million buses, up 47 million buses, or 3.1%, from December and up 25% from the 1,235 million buses a year earlier.

The soy carryover to September 1, 2022 was forecast at 350 million buses, up 10 million buses, or 2.9%, from December and up 36% from 257 million buses in 2021.

The trade expectation averages for the USDA carryover projections were 1,472 million corn busses and 348 million soybean busses.

Plant production, summary 2021

Maize production in 2021 was estimated at 15,115,170,000 bus, up 53 million bus from the most recent estimate in November and up 7% from 2020. The average yield established a record 177 bushes per acre, unchanged from November but up 5.6 bushes from 2020. Harvested area was estimated at 85,388,000 acres, up 303,000 acres from November and up 3,075,000 acres, or 3.7%, from 2020. The average commercial expectation for corn production was 15,069 million busses, with the USDA estimate falling right in the full price range individual. business expectations.

Soybean production was estimated at 4,435,232,000 buses, up 10,290,000 buses, or 2.3%, from November and up 218,930,000 buses, or 5%, from 2020. Average yield was estimated at 51.4 bu per acre, up 0.2 bu from previous estimate and up 0.4 bu from 2020. Yield was second highest recorded after the 2016 record of 51.9 buses per acre. Harvested area was estimated at 86,332,000 acres, down 104,000 acres from the previous estimate, but up 3,729,000 acres, or 4.5%, from 2020. Average expectations trade for soybean production was 4,433 million buses.

Maize stocks as of December 1, 2021 were estimated at 11,647,102,000 buses, up 3.1% from a year ago, including on-farm stocks at 7,234,000,000 buses, up 3%, and off-farm inventories at 4,413,102,000 buses, up 4%. The disappearance of maize indicated in September-November was 4.70 billion buses, compared to 4.74 billion buses a year earlier.

Soybean inventories as of December 1, 2021 were estimated at 3,149,283,000 buses, up 7% from December 1, 2020, including 1,522,000,000 buses on farms, up 16%, and 1,627,283,000 buses excluding farms, down 1%. The reported disappearance in September-November was 1.54 billion buses, down 14% from the same period a year earlier.

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